Given the current health circumstances, please regularly update yourself on and follow the policies in force at the University of Potsdam (?https://www.uni-potsdam.de), the City of Potsdam (?https://www.potsdam.de), the State of Brandenburg (?https://www.brandenburg.de), and (in case you commute to the University of Potsdam from Berlin) the State of Berlin (?https://www.berlin.de). The instructor reserves the right to impose more stringent health policies. All students are assumed to be familiar with and will abide by the rules of proper academic conduct as specified by the University of Potsdam (?https://www.uni-potsdam.de/am-up/2011/ambek-2011-01-037-039.pdf, German only), and for courses offered jointly with other universities and academic programs, their rules apply in addition. You are required to undertake all your individual assignments independently. For group assignments, resulting products shall be authored exclusively by all group members (with individual components clearly marked). Failure to comply with such rules may lead to the consequences stipulated in ? http://www.uni-potsdam.de/am-up/2021/ambek-2021-02-010-012.pdf (German only) (§17). We expect you to respect the Code of Conduct of the University of Potsdam concerning digital courses (German: ?https://www.uni-potsdam.de/fileadmin/projects/zim/files/UP-Code_of_Conduct_Videoaufzeichnungen.pdf; English: ?https://www.uni-potsdam.de/fileadmin/projects/zim/files/UP_Code_of_Conduct_videoconference.pdf). Each written submission in this course shall include page 2 of ? https://www.uni-potsdam.de/fileadmin01/projects/wisofak/Dateien/Studium/informationen_f__r_studierende_plagiatssoftware_april_2014.pdf (German only; also available on the ?Moodle website for this course). Some students appear to have fallen in love with around-the-clock connectivity and social media. During our seminar sessions, I expect you to concentrate solely on this course. All (personal) information and material that you encounter in conjunction with this course, on ?Zoom, or on ?Moodle shall be exclusively used for course-related purposes. As we have a range of guest speakers and an issue of current politics as the domain of application, “Chatham House Rules” apply: “When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed” (https://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/chatham-house-rule, last accessed: 31 March 2021). Violation of the Chatham House Rule will be treated as academic misconduct. You have to read the EULA (End User License Agreement) of the Predictioneer’s Game software, and you accept it automatically when submitting the simulation paper. You also automatically accept all rules of academic conduct for the entire course by submitting your first written assignment, whether this is a paper, written test, quiz, or similar. Students are expected to attend all sessions. If you fall ill, please inform the instructor and teaching assistant with as much lead time as possible. In case you cannot submit assignments due to medical reasons, you must submit an appropriate medical certificate. In addition, in case you request accommodations (“Nachteilsausgleich”), please inform the instructors to this effect and provide the necessary documentation during the first three modules of this course. In case observation of religious obligations interferes with academic deadlines, please notify the instructor well ahead of the deadlines. close

This seminar will introduce students to the Predictioneer’s Game, an applied model of multi-party decision-making. Subsequently, students will apply their modeling skills to specific political decisions on sustainability: remuneration of forest ecosystem services, in particular the negotiations regarding a permanent remuneration for the forest carbon sink function in Germany. While the Predictioneer’s Game will be introduced in English, the applied case will require fluency in Germany (reading, audio). All papers will be written in English. close

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 2009. The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future. New York: Random House. All other readings can be found on ?Moodle. close